Tthanks to the development of modern tracking and early

Space Station Archives

Canada Goose online China canada goose outlet online uk Tiangong 1 space station has been the focus of a lot of international attention lately. In 2016, after four and half years in orbit, this prototype space station officially ended its mission. By September of 2017, the Agency acknowledged that the station orbit was decaying and that it would fall to Earth canada goose outlet uk sale later in the year. Since then, estimates on when it will enter out atmosphere have been extended a few times. Canada Goose online

Canada Goose sale According to satellite trackers, it was predicted that canada goose outlet canada the station would fall to Earth in mid March. But ina recent statement (which is no joke) the Chinese National Space Agency (CNSA) has indicated that Tiangong 1 will fall to Earth around April 1st aka. April Fool Day. While the agency and others insists that it is very unlikely, there is a small chance that the re entry could lead to some debris falling to Earth. Canada Goose sale

For the sake of ensuring public safety, the European Space Agency (ESA) Space Debris Office (SDO) has been providing regular updates on the station decay. According to the SDO, the reentry window is highly variable and spans from canada goose outlet new york city the morning of March 31st to the afternoon of April 1st (in UTC time). This works out to the evening of March 30th or March 31st for people living on the West Coast.

cheap Canada Goose The possible re entry region of the Tiangong 1 space station, indicated in green. Credit: ESA/SDO cheap Canada Goose

canada goose clearance As the ESA stated on their rocket science blog: canada goose clearance

will take place anywhere between 43N and 43S. Areas above or below these latitudes can be excluded. At no time will a precise time/location prediction from ESA be possible. This forecast was updated approximately weekly through to mid March, canada goose outlet black friday and is now being updated every 12 days. other words, if any debris does fall to the surface, it could happen anywhere from the Northern US, canada goose outlet reviews Southern Europe, Central Asia or China to the tip of Argentina/Chile, canada goose outlet online South Africa, or Australia. Basically, it could land just about anywhere on the planet. On the other hand, back in January, the US based Aerospace Corporation released a comprehensive analysis canada goose outlet on Tiangong 1s orbital decay.

uk canada goose Their analysis included a map (shown below) which illustrated the zones of highest risk. Whereas the blue canada goose outlet store areas (that make up one third of the Earth’s surface) indicate zones of zero probability, the green area indicates canada goose outlet sale a zone of lower probability. Their latest prediction is that the station will descend into our atmosphere on April 1st, at 04:35 UTC (March 30th 08:35 PST), with a margin of error of about 24 hours in other words, between March 30th to April 2nd. uk canada goose

Canada Goose Parka And they are hardly alone when it comes to monitoring Tiangong 1 orbit and predicting its descent. The China Human Spaceflight Agency (CMSA) recently began providing daily updates on the orbital status of Tiangong 1. As they reported on March 28th: stayed at an average altitude of about 202.3 km. The estimated reentry window is between 31 March and 2 April, Beijing time. Based on their latest tracking data, they estimate that the station will enter our atmosphere no later than midnight on April 3rd. Canada Goose Parka

canada goose uk black friday Naturally, one cannot help but notice that these predictions vary and are subject to a margin of error. canada goose factory outlet In addition, trackers cannot say with any accuracy where debris if any will land on the planet. As Max Fagin an aerospace engineer and space camp alumni explained in a recent Youtube video (posted below), all of this arises from two factors: the station flight path and the Earth atmosphere. canada goose uk black friday

Basically, the station is still moving at a velocity of 7.8 km/sec (4.8 mi/s) horizontally while it is descending by about 3 cm/sec. In addition, the Earth atmosphere shrinks and expands throughout the day in response to the Sun heating, which results in changes in air resistance. This makes the process of knowing where the station canada goose jacket outlet will make its descent difficult canada goose black friday sale to predict, not to mention where debris could fall. within the Thermosphere it will begin falling much faster. At that point, it be much easier to determine where debris (if any) will fall. However, as the ESA, CNSA, and other trackers have emphasized repeatedly, the odds of any debris making it to the surface is highly unlikely.

If any debris does survive re entry, it is also statistically likely to fall into the ocean or in a remote area far away from any population centers. But in all likelihood, the station will break up completely in our atmosphere and produce a beautiful streaking effect across the sky. So if you checking the updates regularly and are in a part of the world where it can be seen, be sure to get outside and see it!

In September of 2011, China officially joined the Great Powers in Space club, thanks to the deployment of their Tiangong canada goose outlet in usa 1 space station. Since then, this prototype station has served as a crewed orbital laboratory and an experimental testbed for future space stations. In the coming years, China hopes to build on the lessons learned with Tiangong 1 to create a larger, modular station in 2023 (similar to the International Space Station).

canada goose uk shop Though the station mission was originally meant to end in 2013, the China National Space Agency extended its service to 2016. By September of 2017, the Agency canada goose outlet jackets acknowledged that they had lost control of the station and indicated that it would fall to Earth later in the year. According to the latest updates from satellite trackers, Tianglong 1 is likely to be reentering goose outlet canada our atmosphere in March of 2018. canada goose uk shop

Given the fact that the station measures 10 by 3.35 meters (32.8 by 11 ft), weighs a hefty 8,506 kg (18,753 lb) and was built from very durable construction materials, there are naturally concerns that some of it might survive reentry and reach the surface. But before official canada goose outlet anyone starts worrying about space debris falling on their heads, there are a few things that need to be addressed.

canada goose black friday sale Images of the Tiangong 1 docking in Earth orbit in 2013. Credit: ESA canada goose black friday sale

Canada Goose Coats On Sale For starters, in the history of space flight, there has not been a single confirmed death caused by falling space debris. Tthanks to the development of modern tracking and early warning systems, we are also more prepared than at any time in our history for the threat of falling debris. Statistically speaking, you are more likely to canada goose outlet store uk be hit by falling airplane debris or eaten by a shark. Canada Goose Coats On Sale

canada goose store Second, the CNSA has emphasized that the reentry is very unlikely to pose a canada goose outlet shop threat to commercial aviation or cause any impact damage on the surface. As canada goose outlet nyc Wu Ping the deputy director of the manned space engineering office indicated at a press conference back on September 14th, 2017: on our calculation and analysis, most parts of the space lab will burn up during falling. addition, The Aerospace Corporation, which is currently monitoring the reentry of Tiangong 1, recently released the results of their comprehensive analysis. Similar to what Wu stated, they indicated that most of the station will burn up on reentry, though they canada goose outlet acknowledged that there is a canada goose outlet uk chance that small bits of debris could survive and reach the surface. around the equator). canada goose store

Canada Goose Jackets To illustrate the zones of highest risk, they produced a map (shown below) which indicates where the debris would be most likely to land. Whereas the blue areas (that make up one third of the Earth surface) indicate zones of zero probability, the green area indicates a zone of lower probability. In the history of spaceflight, no known person has ever been harmed by reentering space debris. Only one person has ever been recorded as being hit by a piece of space debris and, fortunately, canada goose outlet parka she was not injured. but not least, the European Space Agency Inter Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) will be monitoring the reentry. In fact, the IADC which is made up of space debris and other experts from NASA, the ESA, JAXA, ISRO, KARI, Roscosmos and the China National Space Administration will be using this opportunity to conduct a test campaign. Canada Goose Jackets

canada goose coats on sale During this campaign, participants will combine their predictions of the reentry time window, which are based on respective tracking datasets obtained from radar and other sources. Ultimately, the purpose of the campaign is to improve prediction accuracy for all member states and space agencies. And so far, their predictions also indicate that there is little cause for concern. canada goose coats on sale

canadian goose jacket As Holger Krag, the Head of ESA’s Space Debris Office, indicated in a press statement back in November: canadian goose jacket

Canada Goose Outlet “Owing to the geometry of the station’s orbit, we can already exclude the possibility that any fragments will fall over any spot further north than 43N or further south than 43S. This means that reentry may take place over any spot on Earth between these latitudes, which includes several European countries, for example. The date, time and geographic footprint of the reentry can only be predicted with large uncertainties. Even shortly before reentry, only a very large time and geographical window can be estimated.” Canada Goose Outlet

cheap canada goose uk The Chinese Long March 3 rocket reentering the atmosphere over Hawaii. Credits: ESA/Steve Cullen (Starscape Galery) cheap canada goose uk

The ESA’s Space Debris Office which is based at the European Space Operations Centre in Darmstadt, Germany will follow this campaign in February with an international expert workshop. This workshop (which will run from February 28th to March 1st, 2018) will focus on reentry predictions and atmospheric break up studies and allow experts in the field of space debris monitoring to share their latest findings and research.

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